If Democrats couldn't win Florida when they outnumbered registered Republicans by 400,000 voters, there's no way when the GOP has nearly a million-voter margin.
isn’t even on par to win Pennsylvania or Michigan — crucial states he won in 2020 and cannot win the Electoral College in 2024 without — let alone accrue new purple state pickups.
The GOP’s stranglehold over Florida isn’t just thanks to the personal appeal of the most effective sitting governor in the country, Ron DeSantis, as well as its most famous resident, snowbird and former President Donald Trump. It’s also a raw numbers game. From Reconstruction onward, Florida has historically been a solidly Democratic state, electing Democrats to the presidency in every election but one from 1880 to the postwar era. Even then, the number of registered Democrats in the state was hundreds of thousands to millions greater than Republicans from as far back as the Department of State publicly records in 1972 — that is, until registered Republican voters outnumbered Democrats for the first time in 2021.
At this point, Republicans are trending toward a million-voter margin of support over Democrats. That’s not just an insurmountable hindrance for Biden, statistically speaking. It’s also an idiotic pipe dream when considering the reality that the incumbent isn’t even on pace to win the vital states he won last time, let alone convert new localities to the increasingly lost cause of the Biden campaign.
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