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BENGALURU, Oct 29 - The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, according to all 111 economists in a Reuters poll, with more than a 90% majority predicting another quarter-percentage-point move in December.
All 111 economists in the Oct. 23-29 Reuters poll predicted the Fed will switch back to a quarter-percentage-point reduction next week. More than 90% of them, a total of 103, expected the same-sized move in December, taking the fed funds rate to a 4.25%-4.50% range. The Fed will deliver a total of 50 basis points of cuts each in the first two quarters of 2025 and another 25-basis-point cut in the final quarter of the year, poll medians showed, taking the fed funds rate to 3.00%-3.25% by end-2025, slightly lower than the Fed's median"dot-plot" projection.
"Since the start of this year, the median view of Fed officials on the neutral rate has risen from 2.5% to 2.9%, and it is likely that this view can edge up slightly more," noted Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale. For now, inflation appears under control, but economic growth is set to stay strong and at some point could usher in a revival.
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