OPINION: Our economic recovery -- or lack thereof -- will come down to the health of the American people. Wear a mask. And Congress needs to do more to support individuals and small businesses.
Officials and staff economists at the Fed caution that a second wave of recession could sweep over the country later this year if the coronavirus pandemic isn’t brought under control, according to a lengthy summary of the Fed’s policy meeting held on June 9-10.
The stock market, however, has broadly shrugged off those infections. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.45% rose 0.5% on Wednesday after surging 20% in the second quarter, which ended Tuesday. The Fed’s baseline scenario assumes that a gradual return of economic activity would not lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases, which has already killed more than 125,000 Americans. Social distancing and other public-health measures would keep the virus in check.
“A number of participants [among the five Fed governors and 12 district bank presidents] judged that there was a substantial likelihood of additional waves of outbreaks, which, in some scenarios, could result in further economic disruptions and possibly a protracted period of reduced economic activity,” according to the minutes.
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