Federal Reserve officials, whose hike, skip or pause messaging on interest rates has become a high-stakes word puzzle for investors, seem ready to end the U.S. central bank's run of 10 straight rate increases later this month while leaving the door open to a future rise in borrowing costs.
But after weeks in which Fed policymakers tried hard to keep their options open - with those inclined towards more hikes acknowledging a case to hold steady, and those worried about higher rates acknowledging stubbornly high inflation may require them - new economic projections to be issued at the end of the June 13-14 meeting will force central bank officials to give the sort of hard guidance through numbers that they've been reluctant to provide through words.
Amid those competing views of the world - one where inflation remains the dominant risk, one where the economy is about to buckle - officials will have to take a stand on whether the current 5.00%-5.25% range for the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is still considered adequate to lower inflation - the majority view on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee since late 2022 - or whether rates will need to rise regardless of the risk to an economy that may be losing steam.
Fed officials will enter a pre-meeting "blackout" period after Friday, with no formal chance to reshape market or household expectations as the final data reports for the inter-meeting period are released. That includes this week's U.S. employment report for May and the release of Consumer Price Index data for May on June 13, when policymakers will gather in Washington.
In the last two weeks, contracts tied to the federal funds rate have jumped from pricing in a rate-hike pause this month, to pricing in an increase, to, as of Thursday, again seeing the Fed as likely to "skip" a hike at the upcoming meeting only to deliver one again in July, and then start cutting rates in September.
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