Fed funds futures now put chance of half-point rate cut this month at 16%
Fed-funds futures traders on Wednesday increased bets on a half-point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve at the end of the month, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Based on trading in the contracts, traders see a 16.3% chance the Fed cuts its official policy rate by 50 basis points on July 31, compared to just 3.3% on Tuesday.
A rate cut of some sort is seen as a 100% certainty, according to Fedwatch, with the market reflecting an 83.8% chance of a quarter-point reduction. The probability of a half-point move had stood as high as 29.2% a week ago, but expectations were scaled back following Friday's stronger-than-expected June jobs report. Stock-market bulls cheered the apparent reassurance on the prospect for rate cuts, with the S&P 500 SPX, +0.
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