Fans are back at NFL games. But home-field advantage isn’t—yet.
on individual games, and empty stadiums had unpredictable impacts.
Second: “Home-field advantage,” in betting parlance, means how much better than their opponent a team is expected to be when playing at their stadium as opposed to a neutral site. So because the New York Jets have been 11.6 points better at home than on the road over the past two seasons, adjusted for schedule, MetLife Stadium can be said to grant a home-field advantage of half that difference: +5.8 points ... at least, when the Jets are playing in it.
Most importantly for the leaguewide average, many of these big drops hit teams that had enjoyed the biggest pre-pandemic advantages. Twelve of the top 15 home scoring-margin differential teams saw their margin drop by at least a field goal — including four teams with double-digit point decreases. The hardest hit? The San Francisco 49ers, who had played 6.7 points per game better at home than on the road from 2010 to 2019. Since then, they’ve played 13.1 points per gameat Levi’s Stadium than on the road. That’s a stunning drop, turning the 49ers’ typical +3.4-point home-field advantage into a -6.6-pointBefore COVID-19, every team was at least a little bit better at home than on the road. But over the past two years, 14 teams have negative adjusted home-field scoring-margin differentials.
We still haven’t found exactly what causes home-field advantage in the NFL. But it’s important to understand that it’s always varied quite a bit from town to town and team to team — and the impacts of COVID-19 on home-field performance have been even more varied, and much more dramatic.
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