Is the recent action at the index level mere noise masking tumult underneath?
It might feel more eerie than soothing, but the relative calm in the stock market is hard to ignore and impossible to deny. The past few weeks have featured sudden bank failures and rushed rescues stoking investor fear, Treasury-market volatility surging to rarely seen extremes and Federal Reserve and Treasury officials forced to offer assurances about the soundness of the system.
Will October low hold? Along the way this year, the market has lost the benefit of broad upside participation, something it had very much in its favor in January. The equal-weight S & P 500 is now below its December low and is lagging the standard market-cap-weighted version since the Oct. 13 market bottom. Only about 60% of the S & P 500 members are positive over the past six months even as the index is up 7.5%, a loss of internal energy.
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