Africa's case fatality rate is just 2.2 per cent – far less than the global rate of 4.4 per cent
A gravedigger works in the COVID-19 section of the Maitland Cemetary in Cape Town, South Africa on July 15, 2020 as a burial takes place in the background.As the COVID-19 pandemic sweeps across South Africa at a frightening rate, authorities have been preparing an array of responses: field hospitals, oxygen supplies, triage centres and expanded morgues and cemeteries.
Early models had projected that South Africa would have 50,000 deaths from the virus by the end of this year. But by Friday, it had recorded just 4,804 deaths – even though it has the world’s sixth-largest number of confirmed infections. South Africa’s doctors and nurses, while toiling courageously at the front lines, have also benefited from global advances in treatment methods.Because of an early lockdown in South Africa, coupled with the global travel patterns that limited the number of early imported cases, the worst surge of COVID-19 cases was delayed until June and July in major cities such as Johannesburg.
One of the biggest factors is Africa’s youthful population – the youngest in the world. The median age in South Africa is 27, and the median age in the entire African continent is less than 20. Since older people have a much higher risk of dying from the virus than younger people, the demographics have helped African countries to keep their death rates low.
This is partly because the pandemic was slow to arrive in Africa, but also because of the low levels of virus testing and death reporting in most African countries. South Africa has better systems for recording deaths than many other African countries – but even here the death rate for COVID-19 might be significantly undercounted.
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