The nuclear arms race isn't a threat anymore, but that's not entirely good news. Here's why.
The Ukraine crisis could lead to nuclear war under a new U.S. strategy. As tensions with Russia rise, U.S. troops deploy for Europe from Pope Army Airfield at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, on February 3, 2022Three thousand American troops are headed to Europe, with thousands more on stand-by in response to the Kremlin's threats against Ukraine. Presidentis pondering further actions—and as U.S.-Russia tensions rise, a new American nuclear war plan lurks in the background.
Last June, the United States and Canada carried out their largest war game since the end of the Cold War, moving more than 100 fighter aircraft and their supporting units to nine bases in northern Canada, Alaska and Greenland. The objective of the exercise was to defend the northern approaches to North America from a mock Russian bomber attack.
As the techniques of integration have been perfected over two decades of conflict since 9/11, conventional and digital weaponry have also become part of the nuclear war plan, one that shifted from nuclear weapons only to nuclear-and-conventional today; from solely"kinetic" to kinetic and non-kinetic; and finally from a model of one deterrent working through the threat of overwhelming force, to more and more flexible and adaptable responses which integrate a"whole of...
"As we await the Nuclear Posture Review, the irony is that nuclear weapons are now inseparable from the entire spectrum of strategic effects," Kristensen says. Instead, he says, Washington needs to produce a"strategic posture review" that acknowledges these changes, and one that particularly examines whether all of these capabilities enhance strategic stability and peace or undermine it.
This new strategy provides the president with more decision-making options; automatic nuclear retaliation is no longer the only option. Implementing the new strategy requires bombers and submarines that can survive through dispersal and then through deception. Air, missile, cyber, space defenses are seen as protecting this survival against further detection, to preserve a highly flexible decision-making structure, and disrupt Russian offensive methods. Timing and flexibility are the key.
These DPOs not just exist to respond to specific scenarios but also accommodate new capabilities—not necessarily"weapons"—some of them. Altogether they make up an increasingly five-dimensional threat to Russia—air, land, sea, cyber and space.
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