'Excess' Deaths Surging, but Why?

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'Excess' Deaths Surging, but Why?
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'Excess' deaths surging, but why? We can't blame COVID for this. fperrywilson comments on a new study of excess deaths in the United States compared with Europe.

"Excess deaths." You've heard the phrase countless times by now. It is one of the myriad of previously esoteric epidemiology terms that the pandemic brought squarely into the zeitgeist.

What do we mean when we say"excess mortality"? The central connotation of the idea is that there are simply some deaths that should not have occurred. You might imagine that the best way to figure this out is for some group of intelligent people to review each death and decide, somehow, whether it was expected or not. But aside from being impractical, this would end up being somewhat subjective.

The difference is excess mortality, even if you can never be sure whether any particular death was expected or not. There are options here. Probably the most straightforward analysis uses past data from the country of interest. You look at annual deaths over some historical period of time and compare those numbers with the rates today.

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