Predicting if, when and how the surge will happen is a challenge for the country’s utility companies.
In certain urban neighbourhoods, it can seem like Tesla Model 3s, Volkswagen ID.4s and Chevy Bolts occupy every third driveway.
Literally billions of dollars ride on this question. Mass electrification has lately become the most often-cited justification for building power infrastructure at a pace not witnessed in decades. Ralph Torrie, an energy analyst, said Ontario’s slight decline in electricity consumption last year demonstrates “there are things going on in the electricity system in this province that are not being captured by the central planners. And it’s leading them to overestimate the growth that is going to result from EVs and heat pumps.
Plugging in to trouble Utilities recognize that government policies are pushing EVs. Under federal targets, 20 per cent of vehicles offered for sale by auto manufacturers and importers must be zero-emission beginning in 2026; the proportion rises to 100 per cent by 2035. The City of Toronto wants EVs to account for 30 per cent of all registered vehicles by 2030.
Most of Ontario’s utilities seem less concerned. In late 2022, the Ontario Energy Board surveyed 35 local distribution companies serving the vast majority of the province’s electricity customers about what impact EV charging would have on their distribution systems. Most respondents said it would have only a “marginal” impact for at least the next few years. Only two said it would have a “material impact” such that they would have to change their internal planning processes to adapt.
Clouds of uncertainty Even as utilities ponder the implications of future EV adoption, they often know little about what’s happening now. “Greater insight into charging patterns and geographic EV adoption rates over time will allow Toronto Hydro to invest more efficiently in grid capacity and flexibility,” spokesperson Daniel McNeil wrote in a statement.
“If you ask me how many EVs are going to be sold in California next year, we think we can give a pretty decent projection,” Mr. Muratori said. “If you zoom in and you say, ‘Well, is it going to be Los Angeles or San Francisco?’ it gets harder.” Utilities also have plenty of options for influencing EV owners’ behaviour. One obvious tactic is to tweak time-of-use prices to incentivize them to charge when there’s more surplus power available. Ontario introduced last year a new “ultra-low overnight rate” plan of 2.4 cents per kilowatt-hour between 11 p.m. and 7 a.m., aimed specifically at EV owners. BC Hydro says it will also introduce time-of-use rates to shift consumption to overnight.
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