Predicting if, when and how the surge will happen is a challenge for the country’s utility companies
In certain urban neighbourhoods, it can seem like Tesla Model 3s, Volkswagen ID.4s and Chevy Bolts occupy every third driveway.
Ontario plans to build nuclear reactors, natural gas-fired plants and wind farms to significantly ramp up electricity production. An EV charging station at Langara College in Vancouver, in March, 2021. According to Toronto Hydro, charging a single EV draws as much energy as two average households combined.So why did electricity demand fall in Ontario last year? According to the province’s Independent Electricity System Operator, it had everything to do with the weather.
Toronto Hydro, which serves nearly 800,000 customers in Canada’s largest city, sees trouble ahead. According to documents released in November as part of an application before the Ontario Energy Board seeking to increase rates, its forecasts show EV adoption accelerating in the 2030s, spurring big changes in electricity-consumption patterns. One is that peak demand, which typically occurs on the hottest summer days, will shift to winter.
Some experts believe utilities have little to fear from EVs. At the country level, some studies have found that even full deployment might have only a modest impact – an increase of just 5 per cent or so in total electricity demand. There are ways to infer where customers are plugging in, of course. Utilities can analyze data from meters, vehicle registrations and other sources to try to pinpoint them. BC Hydro said it’s monitoring EV adoption through customer surveys, enrolment in its EV rebate program and use data from its fast-charging network.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, a contractor-operated lab owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, has projected that electrification will require a doubling of electricity generation in all regions of the U.S. by mid-century. Matteo Muratori, NREL’s group manager of Transportation Energy Transition Analysis, was involved in generating those projections. It’s a tough job, he said, owing to the many uncertainties at play.
“It’s not just oh, well, you consumed 50 kilowatt hours,” Mr. Muratori said. “Do you want them in half an hour with a fast charger at noon? Do you want them over 10 hours overnight at home? That’s a very big difference from a power system perspective.”LG EV charger technology on display at the 2024 Canadian International Auto Show. Changing technology presents yet another wildcard when it comes to forecasting how much electricity will be required to accommodate EVs in coming years.
“This is tremendously valuable insight for us because it signals that Torontonians who own EVs and charge them at home are prepared to work with us to shape loads on the system,” Mr. McNeil wrote.
Yesapplenews Cent Summer Winter Demand Ontario Evs Impact Energy Evs Statistics Canada U.S. Department Of Energy
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