Euro Area headline inflation (August) was confirmed at 9.1% today, a fresh record high. Energy prices continue to rise, along with food, alcohol and tobacco, and services. Get your market update from nickcawley1 here:
release arguably the most important of them all. Market expectations of a super-sized 100 basis point hike rose sharply earlier this week after the latest US inflation data showed price pressures increasing further. One week ago, it was doubtful if anyone would have suggested that the Fed would hike by one point but the market now sees a 24% chance of an oversized hike next week.
Interest rate expectations in the US have climbed further this week. The rate-sensitive UST 2-year is currently offered with a yield of 3.90%, up from around 3.44% one week ago, and is back at levels last seen 15 years ago.To find the next levels of support for EUR/USD we need to look at a longer-term chart. Going back to August 2002, the chart shows three candles with lows around 0.9610, and this zone may be the next stopping point if EUR/USD continues its trend lower.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further
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