EUR/USD bears attack 1.1100 on Ukraine, Fed news, focus on US data, ECB Meeting Accounts By anilpanchal7 EURUSD Fed Ukraine ECB Macroeconomics
Hopes of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, backed by expectations of a ceasefire, revived the market’s optimism the previous day. However, Russia’s rating downgrade by Moody’s and Fitch joins US President Joe Biden’s readiness to introduce further hardships for Moscow to challenge the market’s mood.
Elsewhere, a jump in the probabilities of a 0.50% rate hike in the March Fed meeting, per CME’s FedWatch Tool, also challenges the market’s optimism. The stated tool from the CME signals around 90% probabilities for a 0.50% increase in the benchmark rate in March versus nearly 2% odds favoring the same decision earlier. The latest jump in the market’s hopes of the hawkish Fed could be linked to Fed Chair Powell’s bi-annual hearing ofContrary to increasing probabilities for a 0.
Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures remain sluggish and so do US 10-year Treasury yields even as Wall Street ran the show of optimism. Moving on, negative surprise by the Eurozone inflation data, despite being around record high, joins mixed comments over the ECB’s next moves to highlight today’s ECB Monetary Policy Accounts. Also important are US data comprising the ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders, Nonfarm Productivity, etc. Further, the second version of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and Russia-Ukraine headlines will also be the key for the near-term direction.
Alternatively, recovery moves beyond the weekly resistance line, close to 1.1190 by the press time, will be challenged by the 50-SMA and the wedge’s upper line, near 1.1235 and 1.1270.
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