PostSportsPlus: ESPN’s game-changing direct-to-consumer move likely to arrive in 2025 or ‘26
to 84 million in 2020, and then 76 million in 2021. The latest figures are down to 74 million. The magic number expected to prompt ESPN DTC’s launch is when ESPN drops to 50-60 million cable homes — which is where many experts expect cable to level off — but this is a sliding scale.
Every time Sunday Ticket converts a fan to YouTube TV, ESPN will get the same roughly $10 monthly fee it receives from Comcast or Charter or whomever. ESPN is paying $0 for this. Yes, this could be customers moving from cable to YouTube, which is a prevention of churn, but it also could include many who don’t currently have ESPN on a cable or satellite system.
Let’s say — and I’m just pulling this figure off the top of my head, so it may be too low — that half of the current 74 million subs that pay for ESPN don’t care about ESPN. Those people will not change when ESPN goes DTC. ESPN chairman Jimmy Pitaro has not identified a date for ESPN’s DTC product, though it appears to be tied to the network’s subscriber base.At this point, a cable or YouTube TV bundle may start to look more appealing, even with a pure DTC option. Plus, with cable, you can toggle between channels much more easily than with apps. That is also worth something to a lot of sports fans.
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