Canadian firms looking to sell in the U.S. will likely be swamped by the slowing of the U.S. economy and a decline in purchases by consumers
Canadian business confidence will take the hardest hit from the rapidly escalating U.S.-China trade war, as Beijing and Washington prepare to exchange tit for tat tariffs at levels not seen since the Great Depression.
U.S. tariffs on more than US$500 billion in goods combined with Chinese levies and restrictions on American imports and investment would hike the total value of the dispute to roughly US$900 billion — a level not seen in generations, said Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
A further imposition of tariffs on all U.S.-China trade would cut U.S. GDP and global output by 0.5 per cent by 2020. The ripple effects on Canada are expected to be more subdued, with an estimated 0.1 per cent shaved off of economic growth over the next year as a result of Trump’s latest measures, said Brian DePratto, senior economist at TD Economics. The current dispute will take a far sharper toll on the country’s already faltering business confidence.
“But the probability is that will be swamped by the slowing of the economy of our major trading partner and a decline in purchases by consumers,” he said.
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