Soaring prices and a plummeting currency are turning the savings and incomes of most Turks to dust
Turkey’s crisis is beginning to spin out of control. The latest rout began after the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, defended recent interest-rate cuts, foresaw new ones and suggested he was pursuing a weaker currency to drive growth. “The competitive force of the exchange rate leads to increase in investment, production and employment,” Mr Erdogan said on November 22nd. He got what he bargained for the next day, when unnerved investors began dumping the lira.
There is some method to the president’s madness. A weak currency and negative real interest rates may help borrowers who do not have foreign-currency debt, exporters who do not have to rely on foreign suppliers, and the construction sector, says Selva Demiralp of Koc University. But almost everyone else will suffer. Many potential investors will shy away from taking out loans because the economic climate is simply too volatile.
An even more alarming prospect is that Mr Erdogan has decided to test his conviction, which turns basic economic thinking on its head, that cutting rates is the way to tackle inflation. As the central bank dances to his tune, the strategy risks plunging Turks into poverty. Many blue-collar workers, students and pensioners are no longer able to buy meat or basic household necessities. Attempts by the pro-government media to put a positive spin on this sound like cruel jokes.
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