Our forecast suggests the Republicans’ candidate, Valérie Pécresse, is the president’s most serious challenger. Marine Le Pen has worse odds
. The election will have two rounds, on April 10th and 24th. Our model, which runs 10m simulations a day, calculates the probability of each candidate reaching the second-round run-off, and of then winning that to secure the presidency. Charles de Gaulle devised this electoral system as a direct “encounter” between a candidate and the people, unfiltered by an established party.
Mr Macron’s favourable odds stem from his consistent and significant first-round poll lead, combined with his very high chances of beating either Ms Le Pen or Mr Zemmour in a run-off. Under the French system, victory in the run-off can come despite a far-from-commanding first-round score. In 2017 Mr Macron secured just 24% of the initial vote, but won 66% in the second round.
Moreover, Mr Macron’s management of the economy and the pandemic has proved reasonably solid. In 2021 Frenchrebounded at a rate of 7%, its fastest growth for 52 years. Workers and firms have been protected from lay-offs and closures by generous government support. The employment rate for 15- to 64-year-olds has reached a record high. The latest wave of covid infections seems to have peaked.
Our model gives the Republicans’ nominee, who enjoyed a bump after winning the party’s primary in December before sliding back in the polls, a 32% chance of reaching the run-off. The polling averages currently give Mr Macron a six-point lead in such a match-up—a fairly narrow margin. A serious candidate who knows her brief and likes to call herself “two-thirds Merkel and one-third Thatcher”, Mrs Pécresse has been criss-crossing the country on the campaign trail.
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