Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX have a huge week on tap

Tesla Roadster News

Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX have a huge week on tap
Mark Anthony, Mark Delaney, Elon Musk

It's a huge week for Musk fans.

While it's hard to ignore the allure of a SpaceX rocket defying technological odds, it's likely a more important week for Tesla shareholders. The stock is down nearly 18% on the year, and continues to be one of the laggards from the resurgent Magnificent 7 complex.

Expectations are low heading into Tesla's delivery report — in fact, Wall Street appears increasingly worried about the numbers. The sour sentiment may put further pressure on Tesla, and weak figures may weigh on shares until the company's earnings report in a few weeks.

"For the stock, shares are likely to remain anchored by LT opportunities tied to robotaxi and Optimus coupled with other adjacent opportunities such as distributed inference and compute infrastructure and related feedback loops into the core auto business," JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta wrote in a note. "That said, into 3Q26 EPS, we believe automotive deliveries, related profitability and updates on capex outlook are likely to drive shares, and we see risk of continued negative revisions to FY27 consensus.

" Gupta cut his third quarter earnings per share estimate on Tesla to $0.36 from $0.49. Consensus estimates stand at $0.43.

"We lower our 2026 deliveries estimate to 1.75 million from 1.84 million," Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney wrote. "We maintain our 1.915 million/2.000 million estimates for 2027/28. This compares to Visible Alpha Consensus Data at 1.75 million/1.87 million/2.11 million.

" "We note that Tesla recently launched the Model Y L in the US with lead times that currently extend into 2027 , and introduced the Performance variant in China ," Delaney added. "The extent to which these variants can drive demand will be key to monitor in our opinion.

We also note that Tesla plans to unveil the Roadster on October 1 per posts to its X account, although it's unclear when Roadster will start shipping and this vehicle has been delayed for many years. We expect the luxury price point to limit absolute demand. We expect Roadster to be more of a showcase product for Tesla's technology and brand, rather than a large driver of unit volumes on its own.

"Delaney cut his 2026 earnings per share estimate on Tesla to $0.79 from $1.00. For 2027, he is looking for $1.85 per share, down from $2.00 previously.

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