Economists nudged up quarterly US economic growth projections through early next year on more sanguine views of consumer demand and maintained views that limited inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on a path toward lower borrowing costs.
Dawn Desjardins, chief economist of Deloitte Canada, joins us and gives her thoughts on assessing the impact of U.S. elections in the stock market.
The slight upward adjustments in gross domestic product from the third quarter of 2024 through the first quarter of 2025 indicate average growth of around 2% over the period, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. The US central bank’s preferred price gauges are seen holding close to its 2% target, allowing officials to gradually ease monetary policy and help keep the labor market from deteriorating. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect monthly payroll growth to average 125,000 next year — down from a monthly average of 200,000 so far this year. They see the unemployment rate averaging 4.3%, up from 4.1% currently.
In addition to rate cuts in November and December, economists see Fed policymakers lowering borrowing costs by another 1.25 percentage points next year.
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