With the Rams sitting four-point favorites against the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI, find out why two analysts are leaning toward picking opposite sides of the early spread.
. Still, we need to trust what we saw on Sunday: That the Rams are the much better team.
The Rams finished the season ranked top eight in offensive, defensive and even special teams DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Bengals ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in offensive and defensive DVOA, as well as season-long overall DVOA. DVOA can only tell us so much, but it does tell us that the Rams were a far better regular-season team and that the Bengals are one of the worst Super Bowl teams in recent memory.
And the Rams are just not an average defense, particularly up front. Remember how the Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the divisional round behind this shoddy Bengals offensive line? The Rams lead the league in ESPN’s pass rush win rate — and Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Co. are going to live in the Bengals’ backfield.
I don’t trust these teams and I did not expect either to win three games and reach the Super Bowl. Obviously I was wrong, and that means I’m making a tentative read here on two teams I need to give more credit to. But my initial read is that the Rams are the better team, especially on defense, and that their pass rush against the Bengals offensive line is the big mismatch.
Burrow won a game in which he was sacked nine times and won another in which he was down 21-3 to Patrick Mahomes. I still don’t have faith in Matthew Stafford and believe Burrow is the better quarterback, so I’m inclined to lean toward the Bengals with the points and the moneyline. But I may be waiting on the market to find the best number.
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