The Dow notches its best quarter since 1987 as government stimulus and low interest rates fuel a stock rally amid COVID-19
Investors have weighed evidence of an economic recovery against a rise in reported coronavirus contagions in some countries and states. Traders are worried about Texas and other states having to roll back their reopening plans as infections surge.
“While the initial stages of lockdown easing have delivered a substantial bounce in activity, the next phase of the transition to normal will be far harder and the speed will be contingent on the number of new COVID-19 cases,” Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, said in a note. “The renewed rises in COVID-19 cases in parts of the U.S. is a clear worry.”
“The world is increasingly becoming bifurcated, with the U.S. and China at opposite poles,” BlackRock analysts said in the firm’s 2020 Midyear Outlook report. “Domestic polarization is on the rise, too, with the U.S. presidential election set to take place against the most tumultuous domestic backdrop since 1968. The two parties are as far apart on policy as they have ever been, making the result consequential for markets.
The outlook for the U.S. economy is"extraordinarily uncertain" and the success of the recovery effort will depend in large part on the country's ability to contain the spread of the pandemic, according to testimony from Powell released Monday by the Fed. Markets overseas were buoyed somewhat by stronger than expected manufacturing data from China, the world’s second-largest economy. But other new economic indicators were mixed.
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