Fed funds futures rallied on Monday to push the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to 67%, against 30% a week ago. 'Regardless of which of -25bps or -50bps...
SINGAPORE - The dollar traded near its lowest levels of the year on Tuesday, on the eve of the expected the start to a U.S. easing cycle that markets are betting may begin with an outsized rate cut.
It has fallen the most this year so has the most room to rally on a dovish turn from the U.S. central bank.Fed funds futures rallied on Monday to push the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to 67%, against 30% a week ago. The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing.
"That's because the contrast between central bank outlooks will remain starkest between the Fed and the BoJ, for the time being." It broke above $1.32 on Monday and bought $1.3209 early in the Asia session. The Bank of England is generally expected to leave rates on hold at 5% when it meets on Thursday, though markets have priced in a 36% chance of another cut.The Australian and New Zealand dollars also rallied through Monday and bought $0.6750 and $0.6192 respectively on Tuesday, as traders focused more on the Fed rather than weekend signs of deepening trouble in China's sluggish economy.
U.S. retail sales data and Canadian CPI figures are due later in the session, though all eyes are on the Fed's meeting on Wednesday.Apple stock was down nearly 3% shortly after noon, with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo warning of lighter iPhone demand compared to last year's release.
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