Dollar jumps on central bank divergence, euro hits five-month low

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Dollar jumps on central bank divergence, euro hits five-month low
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NEW YORK, April 12 - The euro stumbled to a five-month low against the dollar on Friday after the European Central Bank indicated it could soon cut rates, a divergence from market expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep rates higher until later in the year.

Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points in June have shrunk to 24.9%, down from 53.2% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, opens new tab, while expectations for a cut in July have fallen to 52.8% from 72.5% in the prior week. "You've got the Fed banking on its scenario, neither side of which is coming true. Inflation's supposed to come off, well, it's not, and the economy's supposed to weaken, which it's not, so neither side is coming true so frankly, they have zero ground to cut rates."

Economic data on Friday showed U.S. import prices increased for a third straight month in March amid rises in the costs of energy products and food, but underlying imported inflation pressures were tame. Sterling also weakened against the dollar and was last down 0.92% at $1.244 after falling to $1.2426, its lowest since November 17 and was poised for its biggest weekly percentage drop since mid-July.

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