Dollar falls slightly as Biden ends re-election bid, drops vs yen

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Dollar falls slightly as Biden ends re-election bid, drops vs yen
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July 22 - The dollar eased slightly against a basket of currencies on Monday while dropping versus the yen as investors focused on U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and the next moves from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

"There is a growing consensus that the dollar will be stronger if Trump wins due to tax cuts and tariffs, but it’s more complicated than that as Trump doesn’t want a strong dollar," said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of global forex research at BofA. "For this to be effective it has to be accompanied by financial market intervention that is very large, capital controls that would be exceptionally costly or the erosion of Fed independence," said George Saravelos, global head of forex at Deutsche Bank.

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said the yen has been supported by"more compelling evidence of slowing U.S. inflation.""From now on, I expect the dollar to struggle to rise above 160 versus the yen, but I don’t see a reversal of the current trend," BofA Vamvakidis argued.Analysts flagged that the ECB offered no concerted push back at last week’s policy meeting on the heavy pricing for a cut in September, which remains a strong base case.

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