Analyst Robert Daly on why we’re in a new Cold War and what the U.S. misunderstands about China’s global ambitions. A conversation with realaxelfoley
, two over American airspace and one over Canada, all unidentified.) In Washington, there’s a growing bipartisan consensus that China is an international menace to the rest of the world, from its trade practices to its crackdowns in Hong Kong to its aggressive stance toward Taiwan. China, for its part, believes that American arrogance is unfairly constraining its rightful enshrinement as a superpower. With this level of bad blood, some experts worry about a cycle of unchecked escalation.
China loves to say it doesn’t interfere. What it can’t understand or accept is that development is interference — development of the sort they’re providing through their. It involves elite capture, picking winners. It involves, in many cases, bribes to supporting parties and uprooting Indigenous peoples. It threatens traditions, it changes societies. China is allergic to the notion that there may be moral difficulty with any of its actions as a superpower.
In the past, great powers have sleep walked their way into war despite neither side really wanting it. The political scientist,has become well known in foreign-policy circles for arguing against, as she puts it, an “action-reaction spiral” that may lead to sort of unintended conflict beyond where we’re already going.
This is what I see Jessica’s project as, and I strongly support it, but it’s much more than action/reaction. That makes it sound like a sort of a childish schoolyard bickering that has its own dynamic, but that ultimately isn’t about anything. This is about a lot. These two countries face a genuine security dilemma. They have fundamentally different values, different ideas about regional order, very different ideas about world and international order.
— that China, because of its nature, should not be allowed to control Taiwan. That violates the One China policy.Now, it is true that the One China policy, and all these other agreements, are badly outdated. The original Shanghai Communiqué said the United States acknowledges that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait believe there is only one China, and that Taiwan is part of it. That clause is very important to China.
China tends not to pick up the phone for a couple of reasons. First, it has a highly consultative internal process. It likes to know exactly where it stands before it speaks to us, and that can take some time. The other reason that China is very adverse to these sorts of mechanisms, which we think can alleviate crises and prevent them from spinning out of control, is that they think we use them to legitimize what it sees as illegitimate acts.
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