The changing international economic and political environment will have a profound impact on investment returns for at least a generation
The world experienced a prolonged period of economic globalization from 1981 to the beginning of 2017. This period effectively ended when Donald Trump became president and began implementing an “America First” trade policy.
But not all equities will be equally affected nor will all economies. I have some suggestions on how investors can prepare.The 1981 start date of globalization coincided with the Ronald Reagan presidency and the loosening of trade barriers, including the 1989 Canada/U.S. free-trade agreement and the 1994 North American free-trade agreement that added Mexico.
This trend massively benefits the U.S. in relative terms. It is a giant market, has a relatively low trade-to-GDP ratio, especially if you take out Canada which is an economic satellite. The U.S. can produce more food than it needs and is energy independent to an extent.
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