The three\u002Dmonth bounce off the bottom is over and the real ‘W’ is a W\u002Dshaped recession, not a W\u002Dshaped recovery
How fascinating that such a comment from the front lines of the economy would occur just as the S&P 500 erased all its losses for the year. After sifting through all the caveats in the Beige Book, I came to the conclusion that the bull market really should be in uncertainty. Maybe stock market participants think this is good, since elevated uncertainty means more Fed support. That has been the trade for months.
Philadelphia: “Modestly positive expectations for growth over the next six months have broadened among firms; however, uncertainty remains high, as contacts cite the duration of the pandemic and the depth of the ensuing recession as key unknowns.” Remember at the lows in March, the market was pricing in a pandemic it thought was the Black Death, an endless lockdown and a severe multi-quarter recession. Right now, the market is pricing in a recovery, a recession that will be shorter than expected and one that only dented the long-run earnings profile, a better understanding that this isn’t the Black Death, and advances being made towards a vaccine .
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