Not through courts and not through prisons. The only way to reduce violence in Mexico is to cut off recruitment. Increasing incapacitation instead leads to both more homicides and cartel members, researcher Rafael Prieto-Curiel from the Complexity Science Hub and colleagues show in a study published in Science.
Projected weekly cartel-related deaths and cartel size under different scenarios: continued trends, doubling incapacitation, halving recruitment, and reducing recruitment to zero. Credit: Complexity Science Hub
Their results show that Mexican cartels currently have between 160,000 and 185,000 members. This makes them the fifth largest employer in the country—with far-reaching effects on the population. And despite the state's efforts to limit the cartels' power by, for example, imprisoning nearly 6,000 cartel members annually, the cartels have increased their membership by 60,000 since 2012.
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