Day baseball in the Nation's Capitol as the Cubs face the Nats after an extra-innings showdown on Tuesday. Drew Smyly has performed admirably on the road of late and he should give Chicago the edge against rookie righty Cory Abbott.
The Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Find moreOur side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.Chicago has an opportunity to not only win this set but its season series vs. Washington as well, and there's no better chance of that than with Smyly toeing the slab.
Smyly’s posted a 3-1 record with seven earned runs over 28 1-3 innings pitched during day games. The 11 2-3 scoreless innings he’s pitched over his last two starts, 42.5% ground-ball rate, and his 3.80 xFIP point to a distinct edge. Washington might not win many games, but they can hit and score runs, with a slash line of .262/.311/.400 during the month of August — so even without Josh Bell and Juan Soto. However, the Nationals are striking out a bit more than their season totals — particularly vs. lefties — and Smyly could get a couple of extra free outs as a result.
The sample size is small, but Abbott doesn’t pitch well during the day and his home ERA being significantly lower than his xFIP doesn’t bode well for the Nationals righty. Chicago is built for afternoon play, slashing .247/.321/.405 in day games, and faces a Washington side with a 15-30 daytime record.
Finally, the Chicago bullpen is slightly better with a lower team ERA than Washington and the Nats have a losing home record. It won’t be pretty, but the Cubs get the job done Wednesday.
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