Another bad year for Italy and Germany is on the cards. Analysts expect both to fall into recession
trade war, changes to car-emissions testing, and low water levels in the Rhine: since 2017 Europe’s economy has been struck by a number of shocks, none of which hapless finance ministers or central bankers could control. Last year euro-arearose by only 1.2%. Germany and Italy, which as big manufacturers were most exposed to America’s trade war with China, sank to the bottom of the zone’s growth rankings.
The economic trouble began even before the virus reached Europe. China is usually a keen buyer of European cars and other manufactured goods, gobbling up 7% of German exports. Figures for February are not yet available, but it seems certain that sales will have fallen as the epidemic took hold in China.
Added to all of this is the economic impact of the outbreak of the virus in northern Italy. The country’s most productive regions, Lombardy and Veneto, have been the most seriously affected. Together they account for nearly a third of output. On March 4th the government ordered the closure of schools and universities nationwide until March 15th. Such containment measures could force more people to stay at home, leading to a further drop in economic activity.
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