Red states tend to be more sparsely inhabited than blue ones, which might hamper the transmission of the virus
IT IS A cruel twist that America, which is already strongly polarised between Republicans and Democrats, should suffer a health crisis that splits the country deeper along those lines. That, so far, is what covid-19 has done. By mid-May the official mortality rate was three times higher, on average, in states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 than in those won by Donald Trump.
Data gathered by Opportunity Insights, a research institution based at Harvard University, confirm that the pandemic has affected workers and companies more severely in blue states than in red ones. Between January 15th and April 9th, the number of weekly unemployment claims per 100 workers in Trump-supporting states increased from 1.1 to 12.7. That is a big rise, but smaller than that in Clinton-supporting states, where the number jumped from 1.9 to 16.
A big reason for this gap is that consumers in Trump country have been less constrained by lockdowns during the pandemic. Republican governors generally acted later than their Democratic peers and. Brian Kemp, Georgia’s Republican governor, reopened his state for business a month ago, with others following suit. Data collected by Google Maps reveal that, throughout the crisis, people in red states have been visiting shops, workplaces and other public venues more often than those in blue states.
Republican governors can point to lower death rates and less economic damage as proof that they have handled covid-19 more effectively than their Democratic peers. Yet a better explanation might be that their regions were less susceptible to contagious disease from the outset. So far, a state’s population density—measured by the share of residents living within five miles of each other—has been a stronger predictor of its covid-19 death rate than the presidential vote in 2016.
Given that Republican-leaning places have suffered comparative few deaths so far, it is unsurprising that the party’s supporters are becoming impatient with rules enforcing social distancing, according to surveys by Morning Consult, a pollster. Their increasingly relaxed attitudes have no doubt been shaped by Mr Trump, who is keen to fire up the economy again. But governors in red states should be cautious before declaring victory.
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