Could Virginia be a blueprint for a Republican red wave in 2024?

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Could Virginia be a blueprint for a Republican red wave in 2024?
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Election Day is on November 7 and many observers are looking to Virginia for possible signs of what the 2024 election could bring. Republicans are starting to draw Hispanic voters.

Editor's note: The following column was first published on OutKick. On a sunny, brisk weekday in Sterling, Va., state senate candidate Juan Pablo Segura is on a world tour of sorts. Andres Ruiz, a pastor who works with Segura’s campaign on Latino outreach, gestured to a block of strip-mall of restaurants with a grin.

Republican principles are in a lot of ways immigrant principles,' Segura said, referencing the newly redrawn district’s 14% Latino population, along with double-digit Asian and multiracial segments. 'This race is really a microcosm for what the coalition can look like.' Control of the Virginia House and Senate hang in the balance in this midterm test of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s appeal and record in this purple state.

This year in Virginia, 'top issues for Republicans and Independents…are the economy and inflation, at 41% and 30% respectively, while Democrats said abortion is their highest concern, at 25%.' On a recent weekend, door-knockers with Americans for Prosperity walked pumpkin-dotted porches in Northern Virginia, politely crossing paths with activists for Segura’s Democratic opponent, Russett Perry.

The state party rolled out an early-voting effort in July they say got buy-in from candidates, the state party, and local activists. The push has ruffled feathers in Segura’s district, where the area’s liberal prosecutor cease-and-desist letter over having a mariachi band and a taco truck at one of his 'early-vote fiestas.' Segura said such events have been attracting hundreds of new and infrequent voters, which is what Republicans must do to win these uphill-climb districts.

They have forgotten the Latino,' Martinez said as he showed Segura out of the church lobby and back into the autumn sun. 'We are traditional values. I don’t see the Democrats support that anymore at all. We want to see you at the state to help Glenn Youngkin!' Next week, we’ll find out whether new messengers, a popular governor, and a conversion on early voting can improve on the GOP’s 2022 performance and lay the groundwork for this battleground state in 2024.

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