In a new report, researchers from the University of Minnesota stressed that Covid-19 was more contagious than the flu and was likely to continue circulating after a first wave this spring.
A woman wearing a face mask looks out of the window of a NYC subway train amid the coronavirus outbreak.The coronavirus pandemic is likely to last between 18 and 24 months, scientists from the University of Minnesota have predicted.
"Some countries appear to have been able to drive their R0 for below 1 with mitigation measures, although as the mitigation measures are lifted, the R0 in any given area may creep back above 1, leading to disease resurgence over time," the report's authors said. In the first scenario, the first wave of the coronavirus would last through spring 2020 to be followed by "a series of repetitive smaller waves" occurring throughout the summer and then consistently over a one to two-year period. The virus would then gradually diminish "sometime in 2021."
Under the final scenario, the first wave would be followed by a "slow burn" of ongoing transmission but without a clear wave pattern. The pattern would vary geographically and may be influenced by the degree of mitigation measures in place in different regions. However, the report's authors said this situation would be unlikely to require the reinstatement of mitigation measures, although new cases and deaths would continue to occur.
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