Contray Guys: Etsy’s down, but unclear if out

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Contray Guys: Etsy’s down, but unclear if out
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It appears the company is alienating some shoppers who feel it is pumping out mass-produced merchandise and some sellers who feel their accounts were suspended illegitimately

“Is Etsy in your portfolio or on your watch list?” Over the past few months, I have had this question pop up a few times, as the shares of the e-commerce platform are down more than 80 per cent from a 2021 high of more than US$300. A drawdown of this magnitude is huge and has landed the name on our contrarian radar.

The company’s income statement has performed well over time. The share count has jumped from 40.2 million to 136.3 million over the past decade, but sales per share have appreciated much more rapidly, earnings per share have expanded, and free cash flow has boomed from US$19.7-million to US$561-million. The buyer base has more than doubled since prepandemic times, and in the past year, the numbers of active buyers and sellers have increased.

It is hard to police Etsy’s platform and ensure it is true to its authentic small business roots. It has a handmade policy, but enforcement is costly, time-consuming and a bit like playing Whac-A-Mole. It is also unclear if enforcement is accidentally taking down legitimate artisans. To make a long story short, it appears the company is alienating some shoppers who feel it is pumping out mass-produced merchandise and some sellers who feel they have had their accounts suspended illegitimately.

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