After one of the driest-ever Junes in the U.S. Corn Belt, grain market participants already believe corn and soybean yields will not reach the government’s record-high targets.
It is always risky when all analysts are leaning the same way, though recent weather and the already-lofty nature of the corn yield seem to validate this thinking. However, lower yields may not be printed in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report on Wednesday.
Aside from any yield adjustments, USDA’s July U.S. crop estimates will include June’s surveyed acres, which came in well above expectations for corn but well below for soybeans. That leaves room for corn yield losses on the balance sheet but keeps bean supplies tight either way.USDA’s corn and soy yield models, first employed in 2013, provide the official yield estimates until August, when USDA’s statistics service issues survey-based estimates.
A soy yield reduction is plausible since June rainfall over the soy region was right on the cusp of qualification, so it could come down to rounding and trigger the cut. However, there could be justification for lower yields outside the model constraints should USDA choose.
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