'We‘re talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world.'
CNN ’s Harry Enten: Trump Outperforming His Current Numbers ‘By Just a Single Point’ in November Will Lead to Victory
“The problem for Harris is that Donald Trump has been gaining on her in our polling averages, too — at least in the most important Electoral College states,” since the Democrat National Convention, Silver. “he’s actually losing ground since the start of the convention in swing state polls,” he also wrote.
Confidence in U.S. public opinion polling was shaken by errors in 2016 and 2020. In both years’ general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump. These errors laid bare some real limitations of polling.
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