A new extreme weather attribution system has found that in the summer of 2024, several Canadian heat waves were made 'far more likely' due to climate change.
Human-caused climate change made dozen of Canadian heat waves more likely over the summer of 2024, according to the first results of a new extreme weather rapid attribution system published Friday by federal scientists from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
The analysis takes temperature data going back decades and then creates two sets of models. One measures the likelihood of an extreme weather event in our current climate — where more than 150 years of burning fossil fuels has spiked Canadian annual average temperatures 2 C since 1948. Another 28 heat waves last summer were made two to 10 times more likely due to climate change, while the remaining five were made one to two times more likely. Impacts felt across Canada Some of the strongest impacts from elevated temperatures were found in Canada's North, where climate change was found to have made heat waves "far more likely."
Jennifer Smith, a national warning preparedness meteorologist, said that was a “staggering” length of time compared to previous years. Typically, rapidly measuring climate change’s fingerprint on an extreme weather event takes months to years to carry out. The new Canadian system automatically pulls in weather data. The result, said Gillet, is a system that can produce results within a week.
Rain, meanwhile, is expected to fall in more powerful bursts, raising the risk of flooding and the costly damage that comes with it.
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