Despite a property crisis impacting steel demand, China's iron ore imports are projected to reach record highs in 2025 as traders stockpile cheap ore. Growing supply from Australia and Brazil, coupled with anticipation of a new market influx from the Simandou project, are driving this trend. Analysts predict iron ore prices to dip in 2025.
China’s iron ore imports are likely to hit a new high in 2025 as traders stockpile cheap ore for the world’s top consumer despite a protracted property crisis continuing to weigh on Chinese steel demand, traders and analysts said. The country’s imports of the key steelmaking ingredient will likely rise by between 10 million and 40 million metric tons to up to 1.
27 billion tons this year, up from what forecasters expect to be record volumes in 2024, seven analysts and two traders said in a Reuters survey. Higher imports will mainly be driven by growing supply from major producers including Australia and Brazil, they said, as miners look to sell ore before the giant Simandou iron ore project begins production later this year and floods the market with new supply. Iron ore prices are expected to fall to between $75 and $120 a ton in 2025, the survey showed, versus $88 to $144 a ton in 2024, according to data from consultancy Steelhome. “Our base case assumes a moderate surplus in 2025 and prices holding up around $95-100/t,” said Myles Allsop, UBS’ head of EMEA mining.Weakness in the steel sector, which consumes the bulk of iron ore, means imports are likely to grow Chinese port stockpiles to up to 170 million tons in 2025, said analysts. Stocks are already up 28.3% on-year to 146.85 million tons as of Dec. 27. China, which buys more than two-thirds of global seaborne cargoes, imported 1.124 billion tons of iron ore in the first 11 months of 2024, up 4.3% year-on-year, even as its crude steel output slid by 2.7% over the same period. Rising imports show traders and suppliers still expect Chinese iron ore demand to remain resilient for years to come despite persistent weakness in the property sector. In 2025, supply from top producer Australia will grow by around 20 million tons thanks to rising production at projects including Rio Tinto’s Western Range, Fortescue’s Iron Bridge and Mineral Resources’ Onslow, said analyst
IRON ORE CHINA IMPORTS PRICES SUPPLY DEMAND AUSTRALIA BRAZIL
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