China’s rapid large-scale buildup of nuclear missiles, submarines, bombers, including an orbiting nuclear strike weapon, is increasing the danger of nuclear war, according to a new study from a top U.S. laboratory.
The bipartisan group of specialists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in northern California is warning that the United States is ill-prepared to deal with what are now two peer nuclear powers — China and Russia — must bolster deterrence. The laboratory is funded by the Energy Department and in the past took part in designing nuclear weapons.
While the Biden administration has pushed to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in its military strategy, both China and Russia are increasing reliance on their strategic forces. Former Pentagon official and China expert Elbridge Colby, who took part in the study panel, called its conclusions a “clarion call” that “shows the urgency of grappling with this profound challenge.”The unclassified report provides the most extensive details published to date on what the U.S. Strategic Command has called a Chinese nuclear “breakout.”
Brad Roberts, the study group chairman, said the report was produced at the request of retiring Adm. Charles Richard, the commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, to generate new thinking regarding the impact of China’s growing nuclear arsenal on deterrence. China’s nuclear buildup, according to the report, appears unconstrained and could exceed 1,500 warheads in the future. The expansion of the Chinese nuclear force “must be described as massive and rapid,” the report’s authors said.
The Chinese leader, who recently was given a precedent-breaking third five-year term as president and head of the ruling Communist Party, stated in 2012 that he is concentrating on broadening national power by “building a socialism that is superior to capitalism, and laying the foundation for a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.”
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