For Taiwan's leaders, there's no easy response to what has been described as China's 'gray-zone' warfare—coercive activity short of war.
Beijing outspends Taipei on defense by about 13 times on paper. Taiwan is raising its military budget by 13.9 percent this year to $19 billion, or 2.4 percent of its GDP, but one-third of the fund will go toward personnel costs, and around 15 percent has been earmarked for logistics and maintenance of hardware and military facilities.
For China, which spent about $210 billion on defense in 2022, the political signaling it enjoys may also experience diminishing returns. The near-daily flights could have a numbing effect on the Taiwanese public's consciousness, similar to theto take the island by force if Taipei doesn't agree to a political union on Beijing's terms.
Defense planners in Taipei and Washington, however, say Beijing has created a"new normal" around Taiwan with the activity, allowing it to frequent large areas of sea and airspace without reprisal. Tan Kefei, China's defense ministry spokesperson, told a monthly press briefing in December that the incursions aimed to"defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity against Taiwan independence separatist activities and interference byThe U.S. has no official relations with Taiwan, nor does it have an obligation to come to its defense, but China is already planning for American and allied intervention, analysts say.
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