Chances of Finding COVID-Causing Virus Ancestor ‘Almost Nil,’ Virologists Say

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Chances of Finding COVID-Causing Virus Ancestor ‘Almost Nil,’ Virologists Say
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A genome analysis finds SARS-CoV-2 and bat coronaviruses shared an ancestor just a few years ago, but extensive recombination has muddied the picture

The virus that causes COVID-19 probably shared an ancestor with bat coronaviruses more recently than scientists had thought. But finding the direct ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 is very unlikely, say researchers.

Direct ancestor The study highlights how difficult it will be to find the direct ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 in bats, given how often coronaviruses recombine and how much time has passed. The chances of finding a direct ancestor “are almost nil”, says Edward Holmes, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Sydney in Australia. “That ship has sailed.”

Viral chunks More than a dozen viruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2 have been isolated from bats and pangolins so far. To determine their relationship to SARS-CoV-2, researchers often compare their entire genomes, which are about 30,000 nucleotides long. Using this method, they have found that SARS-CoV-2’s closest known relatives are a bat virus found in Laos called BANAL-52, whose genome is 96.

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