Canadian job vacancies jump to record high ahead of patio season: What you need to know CarmichaelKevin
Job vacancies had been on a downward track. Then, as COVID restrictions eased, restaurants and hotels started making plans for the summer — and found it was difficult to lure staff back. Vacancies in the accommodation and food service industry surged 37 per cent to 158,1000 open positions at the beginning of March. The vacancy rate, which measures the percentage total positions that are unfilled, in the hotel and restaurant sector was 12.
The overall vacancy rate was 5.9 per cent, matching the previous peak in September. There were about 988,000 vacancies that month, which was the previous record. Vacancies had dropped to about 826,000 in February, suggesting that labour markets were loosening. Maybe not.Article contentVacancy data will play a big role in determining how aggressively the Bank of Canada raises interest rates to cool inflation, as they offer a window on the extent to which supply and demand are rebalancing.
Stephen Poloz, the previous central bank governor, said recently that the labour market will the best source for data on where the economy and interest rates are headed. “Until the job vacancies come down to a more normal level, we’ll know there is excess demand in the labour market,” he said onAverage weekly earnings increased 4.3 per cent in March, to $1,169.69, from a year earlier, compared with a year-over-year increase of 2.1 per cent in February.
But pay increases of that size still might not be enough to satisfy workers. The consumer price index increased 6.7 per cent in March , suggesting the cost of living is rising faster than wages. That means workers could demand higher pay, and with talent scarce, the odds would be good that they could find someone willing to pay them what they want. Those employers would then feel pressure to raise their prices to compensate for higher wage costs, reinforcing inflationary pressures.
It’s also important to note that the vacancy data don’t have a long history, as the dataset dates to October 2020, and the figures aren’t seasonally adjusted. Statistics Canada recognizes the latter is a shortcoming and said in its latest report that it’s working on smoothing the data to reflect natural fluctuations that come with seasonal employment.
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