The Canadian dollar recently rose to its highest level in more than two months against the U.S. dollar, which gained strength Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report
The outlook for the loonie in 2023 largely depends on commodity prices, how the U.S. dollar fares, and whether central banks are successful in avoiding a major recession, experts said.However, analysts are predicting some further weakness in the U.S. dollar in 2023. CIBC, in a Jan. 23 report, said the currency will likely weaken in 2023, which may result in Canadian dollar strength in later quarters.
In 2022, the loonie’s key drivers — interest rates and commodities — were highly volatile, Burkett said. But the dollar itself didn’t swing because its main counterpart, the U.S. dollar, was seeing similar moves, especially when it came to the direction and pace of interest rates. Michael Greenberg, senior vice-president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, said the consumer in Canada is a little weaker relative to the U.S. consumer due to debt levels and the housing market, making us more sensitive to interest rates.
"We held up much better than the euro and the yen, but ... we didn't hold up as well versus the U.S. dollar," he said. The Canadian dollar’s outlook for the year is highly contingent on external developments, with commodity prices and valuation potential positives for the dollar, Scotiabank said in a report early January.
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