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Statistics Canada revised its population data, showing Canada grew to 41.8 million instead of declining. The error highlights gaps in tracking temporary residents.
Statistics Canada released revised population numbers last week showing Canada's population actually increased in early 2026, correcting preliminary figures from earlier this year that had indicated a decline for the first time since Confederation. The revised data estimates the population at 41.8 million as of July 1, a 0.5 per cent year-over-year gain, compared with the earlier estimate of a 0.5 per cent decline.
Ottawa Lacks Accurate Population Tracking
The revision stems largely from the fact that Ottawa does not keep track of which temporary residents have left the country. Statistics Canada must therefore estimate figures to fill in data gaps.
After receiving more recent permit extension data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Statistics Canada increased its count of temporary residents by 240,000, or 9.4 per cent, from the previous second-quarter estimate.
Statistics Canada had warned earlier that larger-than-normal revisions were possible. With population growth near zero, such updates are noticeable because they can change the direction of growth.
Economists believe population data has improved in recent years, but they say much more work is needed before the numbers are reliable.
Temporary Residents Remain Undercounted
Part of the problem is that Statistics Canada has generally assumed temporary residents leave the country fairly soon after their permits expire. In reality, many are not leaving and are instead applying for and receiving extensions or new permits.
With an estimated 2.8 million people now in Canada on temporary work or study permits or awaiting refugee claims, these inaccuracies carry major implications.
CIBC World Markets economist Benjamin Tal has been raising alarms about temporary resident counts. In 2023, he told federal ministers that there were likely around one million more temporary residents in Canada than official estimates showed.
Mr. Tal says the current numbers have improved since then, but he believes temporary residents are likely still being undercounted by hundreds of thousands.
The issue is compounded by discrepancies between data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and Statistics Canada. Both agencies receive data from the Canada Border Services Agency, which has entry and exit information on air and land travellers, but that information is not complete enough to provide an accurate picture.
IRCC recently ran a pilot to track the entries and exits of thousands of students and workers whose temporary status was set to expire. The department is currently reviewing the results.
Economic Impact of Population Data Errors
The lack of clarity creates a confusing fog around the Canadian economy. Prime Minister Mark Carney has cited Canada's shrinking population as a cause for the country's weak economy, yet the revised data shows the population has been rising.
Real GDP per capita growth, which initially looked relatively strong at 1.6 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter, shrank by a full percentage point after the revisions.
The changes also affect labour market statistics such as the unemployment rate. Municipalities use population growth numbers to plan housing, and provinces use them to forecast demand for education and health care.
The uncertainty also casts doubt on Ottawa's pledge to reduce the number of non-permanent residents to 5 per cent of the population by the end of 2027.
Ottawa Needs Better Immigration Data
While Ottawa has significantly cut the number of new temporary residents entering the country, not many of those already here have left. Temporary residents are currently estimated to make up 6.7 per cent of the population, but the exact figure remains uncertain.
The federal government needs to do a better job tracking who is in the country. This includes better records on people leaving, realistic assumptions about how long temporary residents stay, and harmonized data collection between government agencies and departments.
Mr. Carney recently mused about returning to higher levels of immigration. Before doing so, Ottawa needs to get a handle on who is already here.
Canada Population Statistics Canada Temporary Residents Immigration Policy Mark Carney Benjamin Tal Economic Growth
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