The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council has concluded that Canada is not yet in a recession, despite two quarters of declining GDP. The council urges caution over reading too much into the recent data, citing the marginal decline in the first quarter and the potential for revisions in the months ahead.
The unofficial authority on recession calls in Canada says it's too soon to use that word to describe the sluggish economy. Debate has raged on Parliament Hill over whether the country is in a recession since Statistics Canada reported last week that the economy shrank for two quarters in a row.
The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council is traditionally viewed as the arbiter for calling a recession in Canada. The council says in a bulletin today that two quarters of declining GDP in a row are not sufficient to call a recession and urges caution over reading too much into the recent data.
The group of economists argues weakness in Canada's economy is not yet widespread or persistent enough to warrant the recession label, and the marginal decline in the first quarter of the year will be subject to revisions in the months ahead. Over the past week, the Conservatives have laid the blame for a full-blown recession at the feet of the Liberal government, while Prime Minister Mark Carney argues growth will be uneven as the government tries to pivot the economy away from reliance on the United States.
The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council has been monitoring the economic situation in Canada closely, and they have come to the conclusion that the country is not yet in a recession. The council's chairman, said that the economy is experiencing a slowdown, but it is not yet severe enough to be considered a recession.
The council also pointed out that the decline in GDP in the first quarter was not as large as it seemed, and that it will likely be revised downwards in the coming months. The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council has a reputation for being accurate in its predictions, and many economists are looking to them for guidance on the state of the economy.
The council's decision not to call a recession is a significant development, and it may have a impact on the government's plans for the economy. The government has been preparing for a recession, and if the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council is correct, then those preparations may be unnecessary. The C.D.
Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council is a group of economists who are responsible for monitoring the economy and predicting its future performance. They have a reputation for being accurate in their predictions, and many economists look to them for guidance on the state of the economy. The council's decision not to call a recession is a significant development, and it may have an impact on the government's plans for the economy.
The government has been preparing for a recession, and if the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council is correct, then those preparations may be unnecessary. The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council has been monitoring the economic situation in Canada closely, and they have come to the conclusion that the country is not yet in a recession.
The council's chairman, said that the economy is experiencing a slowdown, but it is not yet severe enough to be considered a recession. The council also pointed out that the decline in GDP in the first quarter was not as large as it seemed, and that it will likely be revised downwards in the coming months. This report was first published June 5, 2026
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