A drop in home prices in Canada this year will be steeper than forecast three months ago but mild compared with an historic run-up during the COVID pandemic, leaving many first-time buyers still priced out of the market, a Reuters poll showed
While most analysts said such a fall in house prices would improve affordability somewhat, others said they needed to drop a lot more to make any difference.
Asked how much average house prices would fall from peak to trough, the median response was 20.0%, more than the 17.5% predicted in the November poll. The range of forecasts varied from 12.5% to 30.0%. Without a large correction, prospective homeowners will continue renting. A strong majority, 7 of 10 analysts, said home ownership would decrease over the next two to three years.
"Of course, the Canadian housing market is rarely 'affordable' for many potential first-time buyers."
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