“The worst case scenario is that measles outbreaks aren’t contained,” warned researcher Caroline Colijn, an epidemiologist with SFU who helped prepare the study. “Canada could even lose its elimination status for measles, which it’s had since 1998.”
As measles cases keep appearing in more parts of the country, new projections suggest there’s a high chance Canada may experience a “sizable outbreak” — with anywhere from dozens to thousands of people infected if the disease strikes communities with low vaccination rates.The potential community spread of measles in several cities and an alarming rise in cases abroad has health officials warning Canadians to make sure their vaccinations are up-to-date.
That would mean roughly 20 hospitalizations, based on typical rates of severe disease from this highly contagious infection, which can lead to serious complications, such as pneumonia, brain inflammation and death. "We will have, I would think, very large outbreaks — many hundreds of people — in the coming year or two, simply because there are so many people who are susceptible," he said.Measles has exploded in Europe. Clinicians say it's only a matter of time before outbreaks hit Canada
"The level of coverage of vaccination is not enough for us," Dr. Luc Boileau, Quebec's public health director, warned in an interview with CBC News. 'The worst-case scenario is that measles outbreaks aren’t contained,' warns researcher Caroline Colijn, an epidemiologist with Simon Fraser University who helped prepare the study. 'Canada could even lose its elimination status for measles, which it’s had since 1998.' Canada's overall MMR vaccination rate is also falling, and it hit a low point mid-pandemic, the latest available data suggests.
In many areas, including neighbourhoods in Calgary, the vaccination rate was above 80 per cent — while more than 100 communities fell below that level, including several with uptake below 50 per cent. Already, this year's country-wide measles case tally isn't far off the grand total in the United States — with 45 cases reported across 17 statesThat North American spike also follows massive outbreaks in the European region, with a 45-fold increase in cases across the area between 2022 and 2023.
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