Does any other Democratic presidential candidate have the potential to overtake Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, or Pete Buttigieg in Iowa?
These four candidates are really dominating the field in Iowa. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images The Iowa Caucuses have traditionally performed dual functions in presidential nominating contests in both parties: identifying an early front-runner and winnowing the field of pretenders.
But nobody really thinks five viable candidacies can come out of Iowa, which is why the latest polling trend there may represent an existential crisis for many campaigns. A New York Times/Siena poll that just came out got attention mostly because Joe Biden had slipped into fourth place with 17 percent, trailing Elizabeth Warren with 22 percent, Bernie Sanders with 19 percent, and Pete Buttigieg with 18 percent. The fifth-place candidate, Amy Klobuchar, is at 4 percent.
And this isn’t the only poll suggesting a yawning gap between what has become two tiers of Iowa contenders: the RealClearPolitics averages for Iowa have Warren at 22.3 percent, Buttigieg at 17 percent, Biden at 15.7 percent and Sanders at 15.3 percent. Klobuchar is fifth at 3.7 percent. Kamala Harris is the only other candidate with as much as 3 percent.
There’s nothing inevitable about this particular form of stratification. For a while there, the field was dominated by a Big Three . Sanders had some poor polling and then a heart attack, and many observers thought he was on the road to Palookaville. But no: He’s right in the thick of things in Iowa and in most other states. Warren took some shots in the most recent candidate debate, but she’s still leading the RCP averages in New Hampshire as well as Iowa.
So the question is: Who among the remaining candidates looks capable of overtaking any of the Big Four in Iowa? At this point, it’s hard to identify anyone with that kind of potential, though there’s plenty of time left, a lot of subjective impressions of instability in candidate preferences, and certainly precedents of late-breaking trends in which candidates who have been barnstorming through Iowa in obscurity suddenly catch fire.
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