David Moscrop: The UCP leader made some big promises en route to victory. They may serve as a test for just how resilient the Blue advantage is in Alberta.
On Tuesday night, the United Conservative Party won a majority in Alberta. Now, after four years in power, the New Democratic Party will be the province’s Official Opposition—through very little fault of its own. Many people may be disappointed in the result. No one should be surprised.
Elections are often decided by several factors including retrospective evaluations of government performance, campaigns, scandals and unexpected events, but the structure of the space in which these things take place count for a lot—sometimes nearly everything.
The 2019 election in Alberta wasn’t interesting because the UCP won and the NDP didn’t—even as the former was plagued by scandal and plenty of questions about the character of the Jason Kenney, the party’s leader, and of many of his candidates. That was to be expected because of the economic, political culture and electoral structure of the province. That combination of factors is decisive for the right.
There is no guarantee that, as premier, Kenney will be able to deliver the goods for his province any more successfully than Premier Notley, a competent and capable leader, did. And if he can’t? Then what?
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